DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z SUN 12/01 - 06Z MON 13/01 2003
ISSUED: 11/01 20:36Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS AEGEAN SEA, NORTHWEST TURKEY INTO SE-BLACK SEA AREA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA

SYNOPSIS

VORTICITY MAXIMUM, PROGGED SUNDAY AT 06Z OVER AEGEAN SEA IS MOVING TO THE BLACK SEA IN THE MORNING, THEREBY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER GREECE AND AEGEAN SEA IS MOVING TOWARDS TURKEY WHILST FILLING. FURTHER WEST...COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.

DISCUSSION

...AEGEAN SEA, NORTHWEST TURKEY INTO SE-BLACK SEA AREA...
WARMFRONT OVER SOUTHWEST-BLACK SEA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST-TURKEY IS MOVING NORTHEAST, WHILST NORTH-SOUTH COLDFRONT OVER WEST-TURKEY MOVES EAST. BENT-BACK OCCLUSION OVER GREECE WILL CROSS AEGEAN SEA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAY-1 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AEGEAN SEA AND NORTHWEST-TURKEY/EXTREME NORTHEAST-GREECE. IN A VERY SMALL AREA OVER AND IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST-TURKEY THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE FIRST HOURS OF THE DAY-2 PERIOD. PROG-SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. HIGH H85 WINDS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDGUSTS WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OCCLUSION POINT OVER NORTHWEST-TURKEY... BACKED SE-SURFACE WINDS BELOW STRONG SW-MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY, SMALL AREA AND SHORT SEVERE TIME-WINDOW, WILL KEEP ALL-OVER SEVERE THREAT TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY HAIL THREAT IS LOW.

......
NEAR UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LACK OF SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH UPPER LOW.

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